Why is China getting older so fast?

Chinese Children

China had a population of 1,455,219,747 on 16 May 2023, based on Worldmeter's latest United Nations Data elaboration. China had been the most populous country in the world until the end of April 2023. DESA of the United Nations announced on 24 April 2023 that India had overtaken China as the largest country with its population.

China has been the most populous country for so many years. What does this mean to China, as it lost the title of the largest country? The news did not rock the boat in the country. Some comments are positive about it. People see it as the effect of the long-term policy on birth control in China.

However, the recent realisation that China is ageing fast has started many debates.

In 2021 China Statistics Bureau published censor results for the following years.

China has been getting older since 1964. The population of 65+ years old increased every ten years by not more than 2 % before 2010. From 2010 to 2020 (latest national census), the 65+ group jumped by 4.63% and reached 13.50%. By forecast, the 65+ population will be over 17% by  2030. China will likely have a "deep aged population" soon, as China will have 230 m people over 65 years old.

A report that compares China, the UK, and the USA for the speed of ageing from 10%  to 14% of 65+ years of age revealed China was 14 years faster than the UK and 24 years than the USA. Unlike the UK and the USA, which was developed economy before reaching an ageing population, China is still a developing country and its GDP per capita is lower than the world average.

Ageing is a severe issue with multiple impacts on economies, public services, and social changes.

How come  China is ageing so quickly? There are two main causes, e.g. life expectancy and birth rate.

The average life expectancy in China increased from 35 years in 1949, 57 years in 1957, 68 years in 1981, and 77 years in 2022.

The birth rate was high in the 1950s - 60s, e.g. 4.3% in 1963. The birth rate had been low between 1.7 to 2.3%, from the 1970s to 2020s.

Though the low birth rate has economic and culture-changing reasons, it mainly concerns the restrictive China One-child Family Planning Policy.

Families in the 1950s - 60s had an average of 3.5 kids, and many had 5 or 6 Children. The government encouraged families to have more kids. Some women giving exceedingly many births are often honoured as heroine mothers.

My parents, who were born in the 1930s, had five kids. It was a Chinese tradition that the more kids a family had, the happier the family was. They also wanted at least one son to continue the family name. From a practical point of view, the Chinese young generation was responsible for caring for their parent's generation.

Starting in 1973, the China family planning policy restricted a couple only to having one child. My generation mostly has a one-child family. My parent's family had a children-adults ratio of 5:2, and my sibling's families were all 1:2. It is a severe reduction. Now my four siblings born in the 1950s- 60s are over 60 years old (two are over 65 years old). So the Chinese population gets older quickly in my generation.

In 2015, the Chinese government issued a new policy to allow family two children. However, the policy did not work as well as expected. In 2021, the Chinese government announced further that family is encouraged to have three children.

Now high living costs, pressure from work competition, and high costs of raising a child are major issues to prevent people from wanting to have a big family.